Coming up on Market to Market.

After battling back and forth, President Trump puts most U.S. tariffs on hold.

Southern states wait for flood waters to recede as the drought picture improves.

A look at CRP compliance across the U.S., and commodity market analysis with Chris Robinson next.

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This is the Friday, April.

11 edition of Market to Market, the weekly journal of Rural America.

Hello, I'm Paul Yeager.

Two of the major inflation gauges were released this week, with a look back at last month's activities on prices.

The Producer Price Index, which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers, was off 4/10 of a percent in March, the first drop since October of 2023.

The year over year mark rose 2.7%, which was also lower than the previous reading.

Consumers were also paying less for goods last month.

The CPI fell a 10th of a percent in March.

The annual mark of the consumer price index added 2.4%.

Now to the known and unknown of tariffs and the look ahead.

The waters are muddy on what to expect on exact repercussions both countries will experience with the raised levies on goods between the US and China.

Peter Tubbs looks at this week in tariff news.

Great Secretary.

This week, President Trump reversed course on much of his massive tariff plan after a week of chaos in global commodities bond and equity markets.

The planned tariffs are still in play and could return July 9th.

Stock indices lost over 10% in the three trading days immediately after Trump's April 2nd announcement, and yields in the bond market climbed in action.

Described by analysts as a vote of no confidence in the Trump tariff plan.

While the tariffs on individual countries were mostly lifted, tariffs on goods imported from China into the United States were pushed up to 125%.

Friday, China matched its tariffs on imported goods from the United States at 125%.

A tariff plan on many U.S. trading partners remains in place.

When countries use these.

In a hearing with the Senate Finance Committee, Trade Representative Jamison Greer reiterated the administration's goal of gaining more access to the Chinese market.

What can we do to hold China's commitment to to U.S. beef and other egg imports, which are so critical right now for U.S. producers?

China, of course, needs to take down their barriers.

It's been a persistent challenge with them, and they like to use economic coercion, and they have their own method of doing things.

But my my hope would be, is that they is that they turn back on this course of action.

And I think, I think a lot of this is going to be up to the Chinese on how forward leaning they want to be on having fair trade with us.

China purchased 2.4 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil this week, in a move a purchasing analysts describe as surprisingly rapid for Market to Market.

I'm Peter Tubbs.

Fieldwork resumed this week in cooler conditions, but is expected to pick up intensity as the National Weather Service is predicting relatively dry conditions across the US.

This comes after another volatile week in spring weather.

David Miller filed this report.

Southern states dealt with heavy rains over last weekend, causing flooding across the region, and several states remain under water.

At least 20 people lost their lives, ten in Tennessee alone.

Several cities issued evacuation orders as rescue crews in inflatable boats checked on residents in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Tornadoes also followed the rain.

Power and natural gas were shut off in some towns across a region stretching from Texas to Ohio.

The weather cooling phenomenon known as La Nina is dwindling, and, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is turning to an El Nino neutral condition.

El Nino weather patterns are historically known as being responsible for flooding in some regions and drought in others.

As well as making weather hard to predict.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows the heavy rains did help improve drought conditions across the South, southeast, and Midwest.

Even with the eight point improvement, more than half the country is in some kind of drought.

For Market to Market, I'm David Miller.

Government programs have long been a target of investigations of fraud, waste and abuse.

Oversight is a chance to allow sunshine in to see what's happening and if compliance is occurring.

CRP is used by some to keep environmentally sensitive ground out of regular crop production.

But how many acres are enrolled and receiving payments are under the watchful eye of the FSA?

Colleen Bradford Krantz looks at the compliance rate in our cover story.

The 1985 farm Bill, which established the modern version of the Conservation Reserve program, dictated that no county could have more than 25% of its eligible crop land.

Acres enrolled in the program.

Later, the Wetland Reserve Program came into existence as another voluntary program designed to protect environmentally sensitive areas, and those acres are to be included when calculating total enrolled.

Part of the concern About this program and some of its predecessor programs in the 30s, in the 50s, was if you take too many acres out of production, you're really going to hurt rural communities.

They're going to lose, you know, the the production.

They're going to, you know, you're not going to have grain going to the elevator.

You're not gonna have farmers going in and buying, supplies and other things that are in town.

It was trying to find a balance, right, of of what's a number that we think still meets those environmental goals and encourages those types of, of uses and programs, but also isn't going to receive pushback from local rural urban communities because they're afraid of what it means for their economic resources within the community.

Market to Market filed an open records request to obtain county level data from the federal government in an effort to ascertain how well the U.S. complies with its rule.

Our investigation revealed that for 2019, the sample year, the nation's counties generally succeeded at remaining under the 25% maximum.

Only about 1% or 35 counties nationwide were in violation that year.

Nationwide, that meant 244,000 excess acres were enrolled.

If that's multiplied by the $63 per acre national average payment at the time, the estimated total overpaid would have been about $15 million, but experts say the excess spent would have at least had a positive societal benefit protecting soil and water Overall, I don't know that it's a mess because if the goal is preserving land, I mean, it's all of this money is still going to keeping fragile land out of production and protecting it.

Working towards those issues.

Yeah.

Jonathan Copus says it's important to remember that the conservation programs managed by USDA's Farm Service Agency benefit all Americans indirectly.

CRP is a voluntary program where farmers are paid to take land, much of it environmentally sensitive, out of production.

We've got the yields.

At the end of the day, those $50 million are still are still putting in conservation practices on the land and doing some good.

And so I think there's always a difference between or there's always an important distinguishing, between some of the payments we do and what we're trying to do with conservation.

A pattern emerged in a few states where several counties were in violation of the rule.

Colorado, Texas, Georgia and Louisiana each had four or more counties that exceeded the 25% limit.

11 other states had 1 to 4 counties in violation.

We created an interactive map on our website.

markettomarket.org, where you can click on each state and see county level data.

Two examples where counties violated the 25% rule by a long distance.

We're in Camden County, Georgia, where 320% of eligible acres were reported as being enrolled.

And Mineral County, Colorado, at 142%.

This suggests that ground not considered eligible as cropland was enrolled.

A visit to the USDA office that serves Camden County, Georgia, provided little information as to how more than three times the eligible acres were enrolled.

An official there said he was uncertain as to how it happened.

Bailey County, Texas, was reported as having the greatest excess in terms of total acres enrolled beyond the allowed limit.

It enrolled 47,393 extra acres, landing at a total of 37%.

That means that if the amount paid to landowners was in the lower payment range of $50 per acre, an excess of $2.3 million was spent in just that county.

According to USDA, Douglas County, Washington had 43,824 additional acres enrolled in an area where CRP per acre payments were closer to $100.

That enrollment of 32% of eligible acres would mean the government spent an excess of about $4.3 million in that county.

Zilberman says it's worth noting that federal policy does allow counties to be granted exemptions to the 25% rule.

Neither officials with the individual counties nor the USDA media team mentioned this being the case for these particular counties.

The USDA media team did send an email response saying FSA works to comply with federal policy and uses software to help counties remain and compliance.

The results, they say, are better as of this year.

It said as of March 2025, only two counties slightly exceed the 25% cropland enrollment limitation.

FSA is continuing its work to bring counties into compliance.

It's unclear whether the same software now used was in place prior to Market to Markets request.

I think it's a fascinating finding.

And I mean, I, you know, being kind of a nerd on this stuff, like, I think it's great when you when it's helping them, it's a feedback loop into how they're operating the program.

So they if they're making improvements like that, it's running very well to begin with and they're improving on top of that.

I think that's overall great.

a great example, particularly at a time when when there's a lot of focus on, on kind of beating up federal employees and agencies.

You know, it's not like we couldn't use a little good news here and there.

For Market to Market.

I'm Colleen Bradford Krantz.

Next, the Market to Market report.

USDA lowered corn carryout in Thursday's report while raising that number for wheat for the week.

The nearby wheat contract added $0.27 and the May corn contract gained $0.30.

Soybeans held on despite the fact there was this back and forth between the U.S. and China.

The May soybean contract surged higher by $0.66, while May meal improved $16.50 per ton.

May cotton expanded $2.51 per hundredweight.

Over in the dairy parlor, May class three milk futures found $0.51.

The livestock market was mixed.

June cattle decreased to $1.40.

May feeders put on $3.82, and the June lean hog contract increased $1.78.

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar Index weakened 271 ticks.

May crude oil fell $0.31 per barrel.

Comex Gold strengthened $208.90 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index subtracted more than 31 points to settle at $518.85.

Joining us now regular market analyst Chris Robinson.

Hey, Chris, Hey Paul A week ago, if you would have sat there, would your tale be different than it is today?

I mean, we were down 40, down 20, down this down that.

We're up everything this week.

What changed and why you're going to say something different now to that question than he would have a week ago.

We always know if you're if you're a farmer, a producer, you're always basically a net long speculator.

So you're like the person in the back in the in the floor.

That would, you know, get up in the morning, buy a 20 lot and beans and then go do something and come back at the end of the day.

And did he make or lose money?

You're always long.

So you always have to defend the bottom and risk managers that's, you know, rule number one defend the revenue.

So luckily if people had had defensive positions on those worked, meaning that they gained value as the price went down, the key was, was the whipsaw we saw back.

You mentioned soybeans, wheat and soybeans is probably the biggest concern because China, big secret doesn't really take a lot of corn or a lot of wheat from us.

It's all beans.

They take 25% of our crop.

And they weren't going to take many of our beans.

They already indicated that was the case.

So not a surprise is what you're right.

And they were already all done with their old crop sales.

And this is usually the time of year they sit on their hands for new crop because everything's coming up from South America anyhow.

So the real risk is November ‘25 and, that broke severely at $0.65 lower in three days.

But then as soon as the the first wave of tariff concerns, we came right back up.

So that's something we haven't seen in a long, long time.

A $1.25 swing like that.

And I don't care who you are, if you're out of position or if you're not hedged, it makes it very, very, very difficult.

It also made it very, very difficult.

We had some, hedge options on that.

We paid $0.10 for that were worth $0.40.

And we're like, well, I don't want to sell them, because what if we drop another dollar?

So that was a real busy week of managing those positions because those 40 cent puts now today you just mentioned we're up $0.60.

Those puts that were worth $0.40 are worthless.

So the hedge is there to protect you.

And what I always talk about you said, well what I said if I've been here I'm like, don't make an emotional sale.

Don't get upset.

Don't don't sell unless you absolutely have to.

If you're bankers like, hey, you need cash flow, then you have to sell.

But if you can avoid selling for emotional reasons, always do that.

But how do you keep your emotion out now, given the rise that it is?

Because how many people you call on the phone are going to say, Chris, I'm not selling because I think another $0.40 is coming.

Yeah, I hope they're right.

Because again, at the end of the day, all producers are net long speculators.

We're just coming off of, you know, a really tough, two years really.

We went from having super high prices with Covid to a two year downtrend and all these commodities.

And, you know, we just had I mean, crude oil today, just for example, is at a four year low.

I mean, and we've basically a lot of these commodities came down to four year lows.

So it makes it difficult to sit through that I get it.

I think that, you know, the any good marketing program is about defending the bottom, keeping the upside open.

This is not the time that you want to be aggressively, you know, selling calls ahead of that of what whatever's going to happen this year.

So I'd say, it was a scary couple.

Really, really about six weeks really of, hard trade.

we're starting to recover.

We've had a good recovery for the week.

if you look at the sell off that we had in corn, very, very technical stuff, we talked about $0.70 on this week's highs.

We we clawed back about 62% of that.

That's a big level that gets a lot of people's attention.

the I think it's probably smart to keep the upside open because one thing, another, the big speculative funds, they are out of position.

They are they were short everything except for corn, cattle and lean hogs.

Everything else, they're a bit short.

They're massive positions betting that the market's going to go down.

Well, the good news is the speculators are all trapped now.

And part of the reason we had this big day here Friday was these guys are getting out of that position.

So I think if I've talked to the producers like what do I do?

I'd say keep your powder dry if you do not want to sell.

Right.

We just had a 45 cent rally in corn.

If you don't want to sell, get yourself a substitute sale, which is what a put is.

And now, you know, five, ten, 15 years ago, you have to go out and buy six months worth of protection.

It was very, very expensive.

You can do weekly calls now.

I mean, you can do very short term, protection.

So there are alternatives out there and especially and I always tell guys, I'd rather see you buy put than make a sale because we don't know if this is 2012 and, you know, six weeks from now, we've got a drought and it's game on.

You don't want to be oversold.

Well, let's let's take in weather for a minute here.

Let's go Trent in Iowa if we could please with a question for you, Chris.

Normal market signs don't seem to be following true at all lately.

Our weather market swings going to be the only sense of normalcy this marketing year.

I love that question.

Normal market signs I started, you know, trying to figure those out when I was 22.

Here I am.

You know, my.

If you don't have to say your age is fine, it's okay.

No full disclosure.

But yeah, there are there are no markets will reprice based on uncertainty.

And that's really what this is all come down to has been normally would we would trade supply and demand.

We got through the supply demand.

We actually the USDA report was friendly.

I mean we had they gave us less corn and to carry out that was another friendly, bit there which also helps prices to rally.

So, I think that, you know, there are a lot of weather services out there.

Some of them are calling for, you know, a possible this possible that I stay away from that.

What I would say is this is keep the keep the upside open.

And for goodness sakes, if you do sell into this rally, you owe it to yourself to reown it.

And you don't have to reopen it through December.

You can reopen it through, you know, June, July, August, through those tight that time year, which historically, when you go back to are we going to have a potential drought.

Those are the months it kicks in.

In 2012, we were trending lower all the way till the end of May.

I put it in my letter today, and then Mother Nature turned the rain off and we exploded.

Soybeans had dropped $2 and they turn around, rallied.

So I'd say every year that you're you're going to be a producer.

Keep the upside open.

if we do have a drought, you're going to want to be in a situation where you are making the choice to sell, not not feeling that, you know?

Oh, boy, if I miss this high, I'm going to be in trouble.

Drought is a story for wheat, but so is the dollar.

Down 375 points in two weeks.

Is that are those the two big factors in wheat right now?

Three year lows in the dollar as of this morning.

And that's three pricing for a bunch of other reasons don't go too far in the woods.

But, you know, statistically that usually helps our exports.

People always say lower dollar.

It's going to help our exports.

But the big you know, the 800 pound gorilla is what's going to happen with, demand based on the tariffs.

we did have a weather scare the last time I was here.

We'd had a big spike in wheat.

We did rally dollar because it was winter kill, and that was a gift.

I remember at the time I was saying, this is a gift.

You know, when you get a dollar dollar.

I think it was about a dollar two rally.

and the wheat has been very, very volatile.

We had a dollar rally, then we came all the way back down, you know, six, seven, eight days ago, we were at contract lows again.

We've been very, very volatile.

So I think that having a lower dollar certainly doesn't hurt us.

But I think the big issue is going to be demand.

And demand is really wrapped up in how these tariffs are perceived by the market.

Cotton has been one of those markets that has been low, low, low for a long time now.

A little pop is again a tariff the main story in cotton.

Yeah tariff and also China is the biggest and end user.

So they use the most and they also produce the most.

But they also like our cotton because our cotton's higher quality.

So as China goes cotton goes.

And that's something to watch right.

So that was the concern there.

And that's why cotton really got hammered when the first tariff issue came out.

Now again, we talked about the managed funds.

They've got a record short position.

They are, behind the eight ball to put it nicely, and you start to see them having to buy those back so their pain could possibly be, a benefit.

I was looking at Dec cotton today.

We get about $0.70.

$0.71 guys get healthy.

But we were just, you know, flirting with $0.65, sub 65.

Those are five year lows for for cotton.

And we were talking about that.

Are people even going to bother plant cotton.

So a lot of acres were maybe going to go to soybeans.

And then we were talking about the acres issue there.

So, it's a good problem to have.

it's where the, you know, you want the situation.

If you need cotton to recover, the stage is set.

We just have to see if we can get some more follow through.

Are the longs exiting live cattle?

Well, they sure did.

On the first correction in the stock market, we and we had a kind of a classic 38% pullback.

We've we've been in a tremendous four year rally the last 7 or 8 months.

We've rally we've had periodic corrections.

but again it's almost when markets get like this.

And I mentioned the last time this here that the surrogate for if you can't get enough S&P puts on which are the hedge to the stock market.

They will sell cattle.

And you saw that this year I think this week a lot of that pressure was the fact that the managed funds were already long.

They're massively long cattle.

And, also lean hogs.

So they were taking profits there.

Also pushing down there.

And you saw that, kind of an oversize influence.

You know, the we've talked a lot about the disconnect between the cash market and the futures market.

Watch that feeder cattle index.

If you're trading May options, it's right there.

It's almost like a, you know, 1 to 1 move.

So there's your heads there for feeder cattle.

But if you look at big picture, if you go back and look at where we are, we're still relatively good prices.

we've had some pressure.

the trend remains intact.

We'll see if, you know, we can recover next week.

We had a pretty good recovery today.

Tough to recover in hogs from this week.

You know, my friend in Indiana, JD, he told me a long time ago.

Hogs, they trade like they ice skate.

I mean, really, we went from almost contract highs to eight month lows.

And there's a situation where, you know, if you had had a hedge on it was here today, gone tomorrow, the hedges, blew up in value.

Two days later, we rally back sharply.

Hogs are one of the most difficult markets to trade.

But there I think our market there really lends itself to using options.

you know, the herd is not big enough.

The demand is very sensitive.

What's going on with China?

There's a lot of questions about what's going to happen with China with that pork demand.

again, I think that if I'm a hog producer, when I get these rallies and you look at now July hogs, it looks like it might go up to to retest the dollar mark again.

So if we get that dollar mark again, take advantage of it.

All right.

Thanks, Chris.

Good to see you.

Good to be here.

Chris Robinson there.

And we're going to pause his analysis and continue our discussion about the markets in our Market Plus segment.

You can find both analysis and plus on our website the markettomarket.org.

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What's next?

Doesn't happen by chance.

It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges.

We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer, our name is our mission.

For over 45 years.

Steiner tractor parts have shared your love of antique tractors.

New parts for old tractors.

Learn more at Steiner tractor.com or at (877)559-7887.

Tomorrow.

For over 100 years.

We've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow.

Trust in tomorrow.

Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.